A Real Bear?

June 2, 2020By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning

The Big Picture “No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull”  The simple definition of a bear market is a decline of 20% in stock prices. The simple definition of a bull market is a 20% increase in stock prices. Utilizing this definition the bear began in mid-March and … Read More

The Roaring 20’s

April 30, 2020By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The parties were bigger. The pace was faster. The shows were broader. The buildings were higher. The morals were looser. And the liquor was cheaper.” – F. Scott Fitzgerald There is likely no greater known author from the 1920s than F. Scott Fitzgerald. At the ending of the first World War began a … Read More

Arrival of the Bear

April 1, 2020By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning

The Big Picture “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” -Jesse Livermore Jesse Livermore was an American stock trader and pioneer of short-term trading strategies. He was a legend of his day. Just 5 long weeks ago what … Read More

Closing Time

December 21, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end…”  -Dan Wilson, from the alternative rock band Semisonic “Closing Time” is a catchy and timeless song written in 1998. Just another reminder that all parties come to an end. Every market cycle has a few common themes or drivers that perpetuate the cycle. Perpetuate … Read More

Wars… of the currency & trade variety

October 31, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “War is robbery, trade is a swindle.” – Ben Franklin A trade war, and its relative the currency war, are actually quite simple strategies and their execution is straightforward. The trade war involves assessing another country for their imports, via a duty or a tariff. In turn, the country being imposed the … Read More

GOLD

September 23, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning

The Big Picture “He who has the gold makes the rules” Of all the gold quotes, this one is my favorite. About a decade ago, in the throes of the financial crisis, gold was roughly in the last third of a long secular bull market that began in roughly 2000. Admittedly I was not a … Read More

The Curve

September 5, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The red coats are coming! The red coats are coming!” – Paul Rivere Paul Revere was a silversmith and dedicated colonialist who helped coordinate efforts against the British leading up to the American Revolution. Revere was part of a secret group known as “The Mechanics” who are recognized by the CIA as … Read More

Cycles

August 13, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarmen Overreaction in the markets? Go on…! I think most investors understand the market is cyclical. Especially those investors who have been through a full cycle! We have an … Read More

Perception

July 22, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket

The Big Picture “Perception is more important than reality. If someone perceives something to be true, it is more important than if it is in fact true.” – Ivanka Trump The above quote is from Ivanka Trump’s book “The Trump Card”. I have always cringed when I hear that perception is more important than reality. … Read More

Da Bonds

July 2, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning

The Big Picture “Da Bears, Da Bulls”  -SNL Super Fans  I grew up outside of Detroit and I was no fan of teams from Chicago! (Sorry Chicagoan’s) However if you have never seen Bill Swerski’s Super Fans skit idolizing Chicago professional sports teams on SNL it was quite humorous! Now to Da Bonds! For several years … Read More