The Boat

February 27, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “We as central bankers need not be concerned if collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy…”  -Alan Greenspan Dec. 5, 1996. The above quote from the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman on the sharp market decline in 1987 known as Black Monday. Oh how the times have changed! We just witnessed … Read More

Inflection Points

December 28, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust the sails to reach my destination”   A remarkable statement which recognizes that we are impacted by forces out of our control. However, we can adjust our exposure to help obtain our desired outcome. One of the best characteristics of the … Read More

Corrections

December 7, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “I know you think you understand what you thought I said, but I’m not sure you realize what you heard is not what I meant…”  The above quote was apparently misattributed to former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan. Per Ralph Keyes of the Quote Verifier; “this popular tongue twister gets attributed to … Read More

Chicken or the Egg?

October 12, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “Which came first? The chicken or the egg?” The chicken or the egg is a causality dilemma which asks the simple question of “which came first?” It is a rather amusing dilemma. Aristotle hypothesized that it was an infinite sequence and neither came first. That is a clever way to dodge the problem. … Read More

This Time it’s Different?

September 20, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “This time it’s different!” – A plethora of financial and economic pundits… A long standing joke in the financial community is the phrase “this time it’s different.” It has been uttered numerous times over the years when one is trying to explain an abnormal or excessive observation in the markets or the … Read More

Insensitive

August 21, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning No Comments

The Big Picture “The average American is from Missouri everywhere and at all times except when he goes to the brokers’ offices and looks at the tape, whether it is in stocks or commodities. The one game of all games that really requires study before making a play is the one he goes into without … Read More

Signals & Noise

June 14, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “The story the data tells us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has a happy ending.” -Nate Silver Interpreting data to fit a narrative or an agenda! Say it ain’t so… The Signal and the Noise was written by Nate Silver and discussed … Read More

Back In Time

May 8, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “Whoa, this is heavy!… There’s that word again, Heavy! Why are things so heavy in the future, is there a problem with the Earth’s gravitational pull?” From the 1980’s cult classic Back to the Future. Marty used the slang phrase “this is heavy” and Doc, from 1955, not recognizing the slang, took … Read More

Sine Waves

March 13, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “Life is like a sine wave, you have to go through many ups and downs in order to move forward.” I would surmise there are many things to which we can apply that bit of wisdom. Ups and downs in the financial markets? Say it ain’t so! I promise I am not … Read More

Action and Reaction

February 20, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning No Comments

The Big Picture “Look at market fluctuations as your friend not your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffet The oracle does give some sage advice. As promised, I will tend to compose more posts during material market volatility, material changes in market and economic data, or generally unfavorable market … Read More