Wars… of the currency & trade variety

October 31, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “War is robbery, trade is a swindle.” – Ben Franklin A trade war, and its relative the currency war, are actually quite simple strategies and their execution is straightforward. The trade war involves assessing another country for their imports, via a duty or a tariff. In turn, the country being imposed the … Read More

GOLD

September 23, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning No Comments

The Big Picture “He who has the gold makes the rules” Of all the gold quotes, this one is my favorite. About a decade ago, in the throes of the financial crisis, gold was roughly in the last third of a long secular bull market that began in roughly 2000. Admittedly I was not a … Read More

The Curve

September 5, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “The red coats are coming! The red coats are coming!” – Paul Rivere Paul Revere was a silversmith and dedicated colonialist who helped coordinate efforts against the British leading up to the American Revolution. Revere was part of a secret group known as “The Mechanics” who are recognized by the CIA as … Read More

Cycles

August 13, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarmen Overreaction in the markets? Go on…! I think most investors understand the market is cyclical. Especially those investors who have been through a full cycle! We have an … Read More

Perception

July 22, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “Perception is more important than reality. If someone perceives something to be true, it is more important than if it is in fact true.” – Ivanka Trump The above quote is from Ivanka Trump’s book “The Trump Card”. I have always cringed when I hear that perception is more important than reality. … Read More

Da Bonds

July 2, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning No Comments

The Big Picture “Da Bears, Da Bulls”  -SNL Super Fans  I grew up outside of Detroit and I was no fan of teams from Chicago! (Sorry Chicagoan’s) However if you have never seen Bill Swerski’s Super Fans skit idolizing Chicago professional sports teams on SNL it was quite humorous! Now to Da Bonds! For several years … Read More

Unicorns

May 7, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAInvestment Planning No Comments

The Big Picture “The thing about unicorns is they don’t exist.”  -David Einhorn A unicorn is a mythical creature found throughout history in cultural folklore. In finance, a unicorn is a company that has an initial valuation of over $1 Billion, and is not profitable. You read that right, no profits! The term was coined … Read More

The Boat

February 27, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro No Comments

The Big Picture “We as central bankers need not be concerned if collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy…”  -Alan Greenspan Dec. 5, 1996. The above quote from the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman on the sharp market decline in 1987 known as Black Monday. Oh how the times have changed! We just witnessed … Read More

Inflection Points

December 28, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust the sails to reach my destination”   A remarkable statement which recognizes that we are impacted by forces out of our control. However, we can adjust our exposure to help obtain our desired outcome. One of the best characteristics of the … Read More

Corrections

December 7, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMarket No Comments

The Big Picture “I know you think you understand what you thought I said, but I’m not sure you realize what you heard is not what I meant…”  The above quote was apparently misattributed to former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan. Per Ralph Keyes of the Quote Verifier; “this popular tongue twister gets attributed to … Read More