The Roaring 20’s

April 30, 2020By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The parties were bigger. The pace was faster. The shows were broader. The buildings were higher. The morals were looser. And the liquor was cheaper.” – F. Scott Fitzgerald There is likely no greater known author from the 1920s than F. Scott Fitzgerald. At the ending of the first World War began a … Read More

Closing Time

December 21, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end…”  -Dan Wilson, from the alternative rock band Semisonic “Closing Time” is a catchy and timeless song written in 1998. Just another reminder that all parties come to an end. Every market cycle has a few common themes or drivers that perpetuate the cycle. Perpetuate … Read More

Wars… of the currency & trade variety

October 31, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “War is robbery, trade is a swindle.” – Ben Franklin A trade war, and its relative the currency war, are actually quite simple strategies and their execution is straightforward. The trade war involves assessing another country for their imports, via a duty or a tariff. In turn, the country being imposed the … Read More

The Curve

September 5, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The red coats are coming! The red coats are coming!” – Paul Rivere Paul Revere was a silversmith and dedicated colonialist who helped coordinate efforts against the British leading up to the American Revolution. Revere was part of a secret group known as “The Mechanics” who are recognized by the CIA as … Read More

Cycles

August 13, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarmen Overreaction in the markets? Go on…! I think most investors understand the market is cyclical. Especially those investors who have been through a full cycle! We have an … Read More

The Boat

February 27, 2019By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “We as central bankers need not be concerned if collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy…”  -Alan Greenspan Dec. 5, 1996. The above quote from the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman on the sharp market decline in 1987 known as Black Monday. Oh how the times have changed! We just witnessed … Read More

This Time it’s Different?

September 20, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “This time it’s different!” – A plethora of financial and economic pundits… A long standing joke in the financial community is the phrase “this time it’s different.” It has been uttered numerous times over the years when one is trying to explain an abnormal or excessive observation in the markets or the … Read More

Signals & Noise

June 14, 2018By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “The story the data tells us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has a happy ending.” -Nate Silver Interpreting data to fit a narrative or an agenda! Say it ain’t so… The Signal and the Noise was written by Nate Silver and discussed … Read More

Certainly Absurd

November 14, 2017By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” -Voltaire This isn’t my first time quoting Voltaire. This guy was well ahead of his time. According to some historians Voltaire was very influential over modern America. This is a business where certainty is just not achievable. I have been … Read More

DEBT

September 19, 2017By Andrew Keefer, CFAMacro

The Big Picture “Neither a short-term borrower nor a long-term lender be.” -Polonius Debt! When you hear the word do you just cringe? Most believe debt is outright bad. And in many cases that would be accurate. However, did you know that the debt market is nearly twice the size of the equity market? Noteworthy … Read More