Macro

The Big Picture “Never try to time the bond market, anyone who claims to know the future of interest rates is certifiable” – Jane Bryan Quinn Fair enough. However, that has not stopped the majority of investors from continuing to try! I no longer can count the number of conversations had regarding interest rates. Mostly … Read More

The Big Picture “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” – Milton Friedman Milton Friedman was a famed Nobel prize economist who contributed greatly to monetary theory. Friedman proposed that inflation was caused by the policy decisions around the money supply. An increase in the supply of money, all else equal, generally led to inflation, … Read More

The Big Picture “Listening to the wind of change.” -Klaus Meine The song Wind of Change by Scorpions was written in 1990 and quickly became a global hit. It was about the restructuring going on in the former USSR led by Mikhail Gorbachev. The conflict between the communist Soviet Union and the desire of Easter … Read More

The Big Picture “The parties were bigger. The pace was faster. The shows were broader. The buildings were higher. The morals were looser. And the liquor was cheaper.” – F. Scott Fitzgerald There is likely no greater known author from the 1920s than F. Scott Fitzgerald. At the ending of the first World War began a … Read More

The Big Picture “Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end…”  -Dan Wilson, from the alternative rock band Semisonic “Closing Time” is a catchy and timeless song written in 1998. Just another reminder that all parties come to an end. Every market cycle has a few common themes or drivers that perpetuate the cycle. Perpetuate … Read More

The Big Picture “War is robbery, trade is a swindle.” – Ben Franklin A trade war, and its relative the currency war, are actually quite simple strategies and their execution is straightforward. The trade war involves assessing another country for their imports, via a duty or a tariff. In turn, the country being imposed the … Read More

The Big Picture “The red coats are coming! The red coats are coming!” – Paul Rivere Paul Revere was a silversmith and dedicated colonialist who helped coordinate efforts against the British leading up to the American Revolution. Revere was part of a secret group known as “The Mechanics” who are recognized by the CIA as … Read More

The Big Picture “The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarmen Overreaction in the markets? Go on…! I think most investors understand the market is cyclical. Especially those investors who have been through a full cycle! We have an … Read More

The Big Picture “We as central bankers need not be concerned if collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy…”  -Alan Greenspan Dec. 5, 1996. The above quote from the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman on the sharp market decline in 1987 known as Black Monday. Oh how the times have changed! We just witnessed … Read More

The Big Picture “This time it’s different!” – A plethora of financial and economic pundits… A long standing joke in the financial community is the phrase “this time it’s different.” It has been uttered numerous times over the years when one is trying to explain an abnormal or excessive observation in the markets or the … Read More